diff --git a/.github/workflows/memory-impact.yml b/.github/workflows/memory-impact.yml
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..dff73e6cd7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/.github/workflows/memory-impact.yml
@@ -0,0 +1,150 @@
+---
+name: Memory Impact Analysis
+
+on:
+  pull_request:
+    paths:
+      - "esphome/components/**"
+      - "esphome/core/**"
+
+permissions:
+  contents: read
+  pull-requests: write
+
+env:
+  DEFAULT_PYTHON: "3.11"
+
+concurrency:
+  group: ${{ github.workflow }}-${{ github.event.pull_request.number }}
+  cancel-in-progress: true
+
+jobs:
+  detect-single-component:
+    name: Detect single component change
+    runs-on: ubuntu-24.04
+    outputs:
+      should_run: ${{ steps.detect.outputs.should_run }}
+      component: ${{ steps.detect.outputs.component }}
+      test_file: ${{ steps.detect.outputs.test_file }}
+      platform: ${{ steps.detect.outputs.platform }}
+    steps:
+      - name: Check out code from GitHub
+        uses: actions/checkout@08c6903cd8c0fde910a37f88322edcfb5dd907a8 # v5.0.0
+        with:
+          fetch-depth: 0
+      - name: Set up Python ${{ env.DEFAULT_PYTHON }}
+        uses: actions/setup-python@e797f83bcb11b83ae66e0230d6156d7c80228e7c # v6.0.0
+        with:
+          python-version: ${{ env.DEFAULT_PYTHON }}
+      - name: Install dependencies
+        run: |
+          python -m pip install --upgrade pip
+          pip install PyYAML
+      - name: Detect single component change
+        id: detect
+        run: |
+          python script/ci_memory_impact_detector.py
+
+  build-target-branch:
+    name: Build target branch
+    runs-on: ubuntu-24.04
+    needs: detect-single-component
+    if: needs.detect-single-component.outputs.should_run == 'true'
+    outputs:
+      ram_usage: ${{ steps.extract.outputs.ram_usage }}
+      flash_usage: ${{ steps.extract.outputs.flash_usage }}
+    steps:
+      - name: Check out target branch
+        uses: actions/checkout@08c6903cd8c0fde910a37f88322edcfb5dd907a8 # v5.0.0
+        with:
+          ref: ${{ github.base_ref }}
+      - name: Set up Python ${{ env.DEFAULT_PYTHON }}
+        uses: actions/setup-python@e797f83bcb11b83ae66e0230d6156d7c80228e7c # v6.0.0
+        with:
+          python-version: ${{ env.DEFAULT_PYTHON }}
+      - name: Install ESPHome
+        run: |
+          pip install -e .
+      - name: Cache platformio
+        uses: actions/cache/restore@0057852bfaa89a56745cba8c7296529d2fc39830 # v4.3.0
+        with:
+          path: ~/.platformio
+          key: platformio-memory-${{ needs.detect-single-component.outputs.platform }}-${{ hashFiles('platformio.ini') }}
+      - name: Compile test configuration and extract memory usage
+        id: extract
+        run: |
+          component="${{ needs.detect-single-component.outputs.component }}"
+          platform="${{ needs.detect-single-component.outputs.platform }}"
+          test_file="${{ needs.detect-single-component.outputs.test_file }}"
+
+          echo "Compiling $component for $platform using $test_file"
+          python script/test_build_components.py -e compile -c "$component" -t "$platform" --no-grouping 2>&1 | \
+            python script/ci_memory_impact_extract.py --output-env
+
+  build-pr-branch:
+    name: Build PR branch
+    runs-on: ubuntu-24.04
+    needs: detect-single-component
+    if: needs.detect-single-component.outputs.should_run == 'true'
+    outputs:
+      ram_usage: ${{ steps.extract.outputs.ram_usage }}
+      flash_usage: ${{ steps.extract.outputs.flash_usage }}
+    steps:
+      - name: Check out PR branch
+        uses: actions/checkout@08c6903cd8c0fde910a37f88322edcfb5dd907a8 # v5.0.0
+      - name: Set up Python ${{ env.DEFAULT_PYTHON }}
+        uses: actions/setup-python@e797f83bcb11b83ae66e0230d6156d7c80228e7c # v6.0.0
+        with:
+          python-version: ${{ env.DEFAULT_PYTHON }}
+      - name: Install ESPHome
+        run: |
+          pip install -e .
+      - name: Cache platformio
+        uses: actions/cache/restore@0057852bfaa89a56745cba8c7296529d2fc39830 # v4.3.0
+        with:
+          path: ~/.platformio
+          key: platformio-memory-${{ needs.detect-single-component.outputs.platform }}-${{ hashFiles('platformio.ini') }}
+      - name: Compile test configuration and extract memory usage
+        id: extract
+        run: |
+          component="${{ needs.detect-single-component.outputs.component }}"
+          platform="${{ needs.detect-single-component.outputs.platform }}"
+          test_file="${{ needs.detect-single-component.outputs.test_file }}"
+
+          echo "Compiling $component for $platform using $test_file"
+          python script/test_build_components.py -e compile -c "$component" -t "$platform" --no-grouping 2>&1 | \
+            python script/ci_memory_impact_extract.py --output-env
+
+  comment-results:
+    name: Comment memory impact
+    runs-on: ubuntu-24.04
+    needs:
+      - detect-single-component
+      - build-target-branch
+      - build-pr-branch
+    if: needs.detect-single-component.outputs.should_run == 'true'
+    steps:
+      - name: Check out code
+        uses: actions/checkout@08c6903cd8c0fde910a37f88322edcfb5dd907a8 # v5.0.0
+      - name: Set up Python ${{ env.DEFAULT_PYTHON }}
+        uses: actions/setup-python@e797f83bcb11b83ae66e0230d6156d7c80228e7c # v6.0.0
+        with:
+          python-version: ${{ env.DEFAULT_PYTHON }}
+      - name: Post or update PR comment
+        env:
+          GH_TOKEN: ${{ github.token }}
+          COMPONENT: ${{ needs.detect-single-component.outputs.component }}
+          PLATFORM: ${{ needs.detect-single-component.outputs.platform }}
+          TARGET_RAM: ${{ needs.build-target-branch.outputs.ram_usage }}
+          TARGET_FLASH: ${{ needs.build-target-branch.outputs.flash_usage }}
+          PR_RAM: ${{ needs.build-pr-branch.outputs.ram_usage }}
+          PR_FLASH: ${{ needs.build-pr-branch.outputs.flash_usage }}
+        run: |
+          python script/ci_memory_impact_comment.py \
+            --pr-number "${{ github.event.pull_request.number }}" \
+            --component "$COMPONENT" \
+            --platform "$PLATFORM" \
+            --target-ram "$TARGET_RAM" \
+            --target-flash "$TARGET_FLASH" \
+            --pr-ram "$PR_RAM" \
+            --pr-flash "$PR_FLASH"
diff --git a/script/ci_helpers.py b/script/ci_helpers.py
new file mode 100755
index 0000000000..48b0e4bbfe
--- /dev/null
+++ b/script/ci_helpers.py
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+"""Common helper functions for CI scripts."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import os
+
+
+def write_github_output(outputs: dict[str, str | int]) -> None:
+    """Write multiple outputs to GITHUB_OUTPUT or stdout.
+
+    When running in GitHub Actions, writes to the GITHUB_OUTPUT file.
+    When running locally, writes to stdout for debugging.
+
+    Args:
+        outputs: Dictionary of key-value pairs to write
+    """
+    github_output = os.environ.get("GITHUB_OUTPUT")
+    if github_output:
+        with open(github_output, "a", encoding="utf-8") as f:
+            f.writelines(f"{key}={value}\n" for key, value in outputs.items())
+    else:
+        for key, value in outputs.items():
+            print(f"{key}={value}")
diff --git a/script/ci_memory_impact_comment.py b/script/ci_memory_impact_comment.py
new file mode 100755
index 0000000000..69f703bd78
--- /dev/null
+++ b/script/ci_memory_impact_comment.py
@@ -0,0 +1,244 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Post or update a PR comment with memory impact analysis results.
+
+This script creates or updates a GitHub PR comment with memory usage changes.
+It uses the GitHub CLI (gh) to manage comments and maintains a single comment
+that gets updated on subsequent runs.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import json
+import subprocess
+import sys
+
+# Comment marker to identify our memory impact comments
+COMMENT_MARKER = "<!-- esphome-memory-impact-analysis -->"
+
+
+def format_bytes(bytes_value: int) -> str:
+    """Format bytes value with appropriate unit.
+
+    Args:
+        bytes_value: Number of bytes
+
+    Returns:
+        Formatted string (e.g., "1.5 KB", "256 bytes")
+    """
+    if bytes_value < 1024:
+        return f"{bytes_value} bytes"
+    if bytes_value < 1024 * 1024:
+        return f"{bytes_value / 1024:.2f} KB"
+    return f"{bytes_value / (1024 * 1024):.2f} MB"
+
+
+def format_change(before: int, after: int) -> str:
+    """Format memory change with delta and percentage.
+
+    Args:
+        before: Memory usage before change
+        after: Memory usage after change
+
+    Returns:
+        Formatted string with delta and percentage
+    """
+    delta = after - before
+    percentage = 0.0 if before == 0 else (delta / before) * 100
+
+    # Format delta with sign
+    delta_str = f"+{format_bytes(delta)}" if delta >= 0 else format_bytes(delta)
+
+    # Format percentage with sign
+    if percentage > 0:
+        pct_str = f"+{percentage:.2f}%"
+    elif percentage < 0:
+        pct_str = f"{percentage:.2f}%"
+    else:
+        pct_str = "0.00%"
+
+    # Add emoji indicator
+    if delta > 0:
+        emoji = "📈"
+    elif delta < 0:
+        emoji = "📉"
+    else:
+        emoji = "➡️"
+
+    return f"{emoji} {delta_str} ({pct_str})"
+
+
+def create_comment_body(
+    component: str,
+    platform: str,
+    target_ram: int,
+    target_flash: int,
+    pr_ram: int,
+    pr_flash: int,
+) -> str:
+    """Create the comment body with memory impact analysis.
+
+    Args:
+        component: Component name
+        platform: Platform name
+        target_ram: RAM usage in target branch
+        target_flash: Flash usage in target branch
+        pr_ram: RAM usage in PR branch
+        pr_flash: Flash usage in PR branch
+
+    Returns:
+        Formatted comment body
+    """
+    ram_change = format_change(target_ram, pr_ram)
+    flash_change = format_change(target_flash, pr_flash)
+
+    return f"""{COMMENT_MARKER}
+## Memory Impact Analysis
+
+**Component:** `{component}`
+**Platform:** `{platform}`
+
+| Metric | Target Branch | This PR | Change |
+|--------|--------------|---------|--------|
+| **RAM** | {format_bytes(target_ram)} | {format_bytes(pr_ram)} | {ram_change} |
+| **Flash** | {format_bytes(target_flash)} | {format_bytes(pr_flash)} | {flash_change} |
+
+---
+*This analysis runs automatically when a single component changes. Memory usage is measured from a representative test configuration.*
+"""
+
+
+def find_existing_comment(pr_number: str) -> str | None:
+    """Find existing memory impact comment on the PR.
+
+    Args:
+        pr_number: PR number
+
+    Returns:
+        Comment ID if found, None otherwise
+    """
+    try:
+        # List all comments on the PR
+        result = subprocess.run(
+            [
+                "gh",
+                "pr",
+                "view",
+                pr_number,
+                "--json",
+                "comments",
+                "--jq",
+                ".comments[]",
+            ],
+            capture_output=True,
+            text=True,
+            check=True,
+        )
+
+        # Parse comments and look for our marker
+        for line in result.stdout.strip().split("\n"):
+            if not line:
+                continue
+
+            try:
+                comment = json.loads(line)
+                if COMMENT_MARKER in comment.get("body", ""):
+                    return str(comment["id"])
+            except json.JSONDecodeError:
+                continue
+
+        return None
+
+    except subprocess.CalledProcessError as e:
+        print(f"Error finding existing comment: {e}", file=sys.stderr)
+        return None
+
+
+def post_or_update_comment(pr_number: str, comment_body: str) -> bool:
+    """Post a new comment or update existing one.
+
+    Args:
+        pr_number: PR number
+        comment_body: Comment body text
+
+    Returns:
+        True if successful, False otherwise
+    """
+    # Look for existing comment
+    existing_comment_id = find_existing_comment(pr_number)
+
+    try:
+        if existing_comment_id:
+            # Update existing comment
+            print(f"Updating existing comment {existing_comment_id}", file=sys.stderr)
+            subprocess.run(
+                [
+                    "gh",
+                    "api",
+                    f"/repos/{{owner}}/{{repo}}/issues/comments/{existing_comment_id}",
+                    "-X",
+                    "PATCH",
+                    "-f",
+                    f"body={comment_body}",
+                ],
+                check=True,
+                capture_output=True,
+            )
+        else:
+            # Post new comment
+            print("Posting new comment", file=sys.stderr)
+            subprocess.run(
+                ["gh", "pr", "comment", pr_number, "--body", comment_body],
+                check=True,
+                capture_output=True,
+            )
+
+        print("Comment posted/updated successfully", file=sys.stderr)
+        return True
+
+    except subprocess.CalledProcessError as e:
+        print(f"Error posting/updating comment: {e}", file=sys.stderr)
+        if e.stderr:
+            print(f"stderr: {e.stderr.decode()}", file=sys.stderr)
+        return False
+
+
+def main() -> int:
+    """Main entry point."""
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
+        description="Post or update PR comment with memory impact analysis"
+    )
+    parser.add_argument("--pr-number", required=True, help="PR number")
+    parser.add_argument("--component", required=True, help="Component name")
+    parser.add_argument("--platform", required=True, help="Platform name")
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--target-ram", type=int, required=True, help="Target branch RAM usage"
+    )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--target-flash", type=int, required=True, help="Target branch flash usage"
+    )
+    parser.add_argument("--pr-ram", type=int, required=True, help="PR branch RAM usage")
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--pr-flash", type=int, required=True, help="PR branch flash usage"
+    )
+
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+
+    # Create comment body
+    comment_body = create_comment_body(
+        component=args.component,
+        platform=args.platform,
+        target_ram=args.target_ram,
+        target_flash=args.target_flash,
+        pr_ram=args.pr_ram,
+        pr_flash=args.pr_flash,
+    )
+
+    # Post or update comment
+    success = post_or_update_comment(args.pr_number, comment_body)
+
+    return 0 if success else 1
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())
diff --git a/script/ci_memory_impact_detector.py b/script/ci_memory_impact_detector.py
new file mode 100755
index 0000000000..8c3045ab00
--- /dev/null
+++ b/script/ci_memory_impact_detector.py
@@ -0,0 +1,134 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Detect if a PR changes exactly one component for memory impact analysis.
+
+This script is used by the CI workflow to determine if a PR should trigger
+memory impact analysis. The analysis only runs when:
+1. Exactly one component has changed (not counting core changes)
+2. The component has at least one test configuration
+
+The script outputs GitHub Actions environment variables to control the workflow.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from pathlib import Path
+import sys
+
+# Add esphome to path
+sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent.parent))
+
+# pylint: disable=wrong-import-position
+from script.ci_helpers import write_github_output
+from script.helpers import ESPHOME_COMPONENTS_PATH, changed_files
+
+# Platform preference order for memory impact analysis
+# Ordered by production relevance and memory constraint importance
+PLATFORM_PREFERENCE = [
+    "esp32-idf",  # Primary ESP32 IDF platform
+    "esp32-c3-idf",  # ESP32-C3 IDF
+    "esp32-c6-idf",  # ESP32-C6 IDF
+    "esp32-s2-idf",  # ESP32-S2 IDF
+    "esp32-s3-idf",  # ESP32-S3 IDF
+    "esp32-c2-idf",  # ESP32-C2 IDF
+    "esp32-c5-idf",  # ESP32-C5 IDF
+    "esp32-h2-idf",  # ESP32-H2 IDF
+    "esp32-p4-idf",  # ESP32-P4 IDF
+    "esp8266-ard",  # ESP8266 Arduino (memory constrained)
+    "esp32-ard",  # ESP32 Arduino
+    "esp32-c3-ard",  # ESP32-C3 Arduino
+    "esp32-s2-ard",  # ESP32-S2 Arduino
+    "esp32-s3-ard",  # ESP32-S3 Arduino
+    "bk72xx-ard",  # BK72xx Arduino
+    "rp2040-ard",  # RP2040 Arduino
+    "nrf52-adafruit",  # nRF52 Adafruit
+    "host",  # Host platform (development/testing)
+]
+
+
+def find_test_for_component(component: str) -> tuple[str | None, str | None]:
+    """Find a test configuration for the given component.
+
+    Prefers platforms based on PLATFORM_PREFERENCE order.
+
+    Args:
+        component: Component name
+
+    Returns:
+        Tuple of (test_file_name, platform) or (None, None) if no test found
+    """
+    tests_dir = Path(__file__).parent.parent / "tests" / "components" / component
+
+    if not tests_dir.exists():
+        return None, None
+
+    # Look for test files
+    test_files = list(tests_dir.glob("test.*.yaml"))
+    if not test_files:
+        return None, None
+
+    # Try each preferred platform in order
+    for preferred_platform in PLATFORM_PREFERENCE:
+        for test_file in test_files:
+            parts = test_file.stem.split(".")
+            if len(parts) >= 2:
+                platform = parts[1]
+                if platform == preferred_platform:
+                    return test_file.name, platform
+
+    # Fall back to first test file
+    test_file = test_files[0]
+    parts = test_file.stem.split(".")
+    platform = parts[1] if len(parts) >= 2 else "esp32-idf"
+    return test_file.name, platform
+
+
+def detect_single_component_change() -> None:
+    """Detect if exactly one component changed and output GitHub Actions variables."""
+    files = changed_files()
+
+    # Find all changed components (excluding core)
+    changed_components = set()
+
+    for file in files:
+        if file.startswith(ESPHOME_COMPONENTS_PATH):
+            parts = file.split("/")
+            if len(parts) >= 3:
+                component = parts[2]
+                # Skip base bus components as they're used across many builds
+                if component not in ["i2c", "spi", "uart", "modbus"]:
+                    changed_components.add(component)
+
+    # Only proceed if exactly one component changed
+    if len(changed_components) != 1:
+        print(
+            f"Found {len(changed_components)} component(s) changed, skipping memory analysis"
+        )
+        write_github_output({"should_run": "false"})
+        return
+
+    component = list(changed_components)[0]
+    print(f"Detected single component change: {component}")
+
+    # Find a test configuration for this component
+    test_file, platform = find_test_for_component(component)
+
+    if not test_file:
+        print(f"No test configuration found for {component}, skipping memory analysis")
+        write_github_output({"should_run": "false"})
+        return
+
+    print(f"Found test: {test_file} for platform: {platform}")
+    print("Memory impact analysis will run")
+
+    write_github_output(
+        {
+            "should_run": "true",
+            "component": component,
+            "test_file": test_file,
+            "platform": platform,
+        }
+    )
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    detect_single_component_change()
diff --git a/script/ci_memory_impact_extract.py b/script/ci_memory_impact_extract.py
new file mode 100755
index 0000000000..9ddd39096f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/script/ci_memory_impact_extract.py
@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Extract memory usage statistics from ESPHome build output.
+
+This script parses the PlatformIO build output to extract RAM and flash
+usage statistics for a compiled component. It's used by the CI workflow to
+compare memory usage between branches.
+
+The script reads compile output from stdin and looks for the standard
+PlatformIO output format:
+    RAM:   [====      ]  36.1% (used 29548 bytes from 81920 bytes)
+    Flash: [===       ]  34.0% (used 348511 bytes from 1023984 bytes)
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+from pathlib import Path
+import re
+import sys
+
+# Add esphome to path
+sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent.parent))
+
+# pylint: disable=wrong-import-position
+from script.ci_helpers import write_github_output
+
+
+def extract_from_compile_output(output_text: str) -> tuple[int | None, int | None]:
+    """Extract memory usage from PlatformIO compile output.
+
+    Looks for lines like:
+        RAM:   [====      ]  36.1% (used 29548 bytes from 81920 bytes)
+        Flash: [===       ]  34.0% (used 348511 bytes from 1023984 bytes)
+
+    Args:
+        output_text: Compile output text
+
+    Returns:
+        Tuple of (ram_bytes, flash_bytes) or (None, None) if not found
+    """
+    ram_match = re.search(
+        r"RAM:\s+\[.*?\]\s+\d+\.\d+%\s+\(used\s+(\d+)\s+bytes", output_text
+    )
+    flash_match = re.search(
+        r"Flash:\s+\[.*?\]\s+\d+\.\d+%\s+\(used\s+(\d+)\s+bytes", output_text
+    )
+
+    if ram_match and flash_match:
+        return int(ram_match.group(1)), int(flash_match.group(1))
+
+    return None, None
+
+
+def main() -> int:
+    """Main entry point."""
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
+        description="Extract memory usage from ESPHome build output"
+    )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--output-env",
+        action="store_true",
+        help="Output to GITHUB_OUTPUT environment file",
+    )
+
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+
+    # Read compile output from stdin
+    compile_output = sys.stdin.read()
+
+    # Extract memory usage
+    ram_bytes, flash_bytes = extract_from_compile_output(compile_output)
+
+    if ram_bytes is None or flash_bytes is None:
+        print("Failed to extract memory usage from compile output", file=sys.stderr)
+        print("Expected lines like:", file=sys.stderr)
+        print(
+            "  RAM:   [====      ]  36.1% (used 29548 bytes from 81920 bytes)",
+            file=sys.stderr,
+        )
+        print(
+            "  Flash: [===       ]  34.0% (used 348511 bytes from 1023984 bytes)",
+            file=sys.stderr,
+        )
+        return 1
+
+    print(f"RAM: {ram_bytes} bytes", file=sys.stderr)
+    print(f"Flash: {flash_bytes} bytes", file=sys.stderr)
+
+    if args.output_env:
+        # Output to GitHub Actions
+        write_github_output(
+            {
+                "ram_usage": ram_bytes,
+                "flash_usage": flash_bytes,
+            }
+        )
+    else:
+        print(f"{ram_bytes},{flash_bytes}")
+
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())